Welcome back to The Coach Clarahanson Show!!! Coach felt compelled to put a bow on the white elephant gift that was the 2018 season and get you feeling good about what's to come. So THIS is the final, final 2018 season episode. No more episodes while the playoffs move forward (probably), but Coach will be back right before the draft to prep you for the 2019 season. In the meantime, good luck setting your tip-ups, and go Bucks! Cream A Seam Here – X’s & O’s about the game or a scheme It was a blowout, just as Coach predicted… …the most disgusting home game Coach has ever seen. …the team quit before they left the locker room. …wanna know why? Here’s why: Packers blown out 31-0 … Murphy declares Titletown a success This is what the Packers view as success. Just showing up in a Packer jersey and expecting fans to support the commercial excess without putting a competitive team on the field will not last long. This community has supported the Packers through many, many tough times, but there are too many alternative recreational options today to expect the fans to support ineptitude. DC and Northwestern might be fond of participation trophies, but Green Bay is not. As the Packers Executive Committee has neither said nor done anything, Coach assumes that they have endorsed Murphy’s “Jerry Jones Model” of Football Management. He has explained at several news conferences that he knows a lot about football, football coaches and hiring football coaches. Interesting. What is also interesting is that if you look carefully at one of the pictures above, you will notice he is wearing a dress shirt while sledding down his new hill. In a supreme bit of irony, not only does he not understand Packer Nation (pardon the double negative), he does not understand how to dress for riding a tube down a snow hill either… Fire Murphy. The house cleaning needs attention at the top. The McCarthy/Rodgers (TT/Capers) Era Let’s take a look back at the last 10 Seasons, the heart of the McCarthy era, and see if we can glean any insight into why we are all so frustrated. As we do that, Coach hastens to remind you, the loyal reader, that when our team scores more points than the other team, we win. This keen insight was examined by a nerdy guy named Bill James to develop an evaluation of how many games a baseball team “should have won” based on the difference in runs scored and runs allowed. Coach recognizes that most of you slept through High School geometry, but he’s guessing that you will remember the name Pythagoras and his theorem. Good ’ol Bill wondered if he could lean on Pythagoras for some insight on this. Pythagoras held that A^2 + B^2 = C^2 (to determine the unknown length of one side of a right triangle). So Bill started playing with sports data and derived an empirical formula for baseball and then football that resembles the Pythagorean theorem. The predicted number given by this equation is referred to as Pythagorean Wins. Feel free to go back to sleep here, but if you study the equation above you see that as the Point Differential increases (difference between offensive points scored and defensive points allowed), the Pythagorean Wins number increases. Very importantly, it increases at a faster rate when the defensive points allowed decreases. In other words, a superior defense is likely to create more wins than a superior offense. That helps explain, technically, what most NFL fans believe anyway: Defense wins championships. So what? How does that apply to the last 10 years? There are several key takeaways from the chart above. The first one is that 2009 and 2010 were the best teams that McCarthy had, they both had seasons of 11.8 predicted wins. Equally, both were “unlucky” in the regular season. The 2010 team jumps out as really good, they “should” have been 12-4, so Coach sees nothing surprising about the Super Bowl run. The 2014 team (meltdown in Seattle) “outperformed” to achieved 12 Regular Season wins, but maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that the 11-win team got bounced. What’s also interesting is that the Packers have “outperformed” the Regular Season Predicted wins by 1.4 wins per season. That certainly explains most of the playoff disappointments, charlatans who didn’t belong there in most cases anyway … likely the beneficiary of being in a piss-poor division with the likes of choking Vikings, self-destructing Lions, and sucking Bears, to afford more wins than a team with real competition could have otherwise generated. How can that be? How can we consistently average an extra win-and-a-half? Well, obviously there are more factors involved, but at the highest-level Coach sees two possible explanations:
Both Coaches were pretty decent, good managers of the team who can average 10 wins and then flame out in playoffs. So, let’s discard explanation #1, McCarthy was not carrying this team. (Note, McCarthy’s winning percentage above includes the Favre years and the 2008 AR season.) Most of you have been thinking this anyway, but the data suggests that Rodgers has been carrying the team. Rodgers had an off year in 2018, so the team had an off-year. When Rodgers plays like a superhuman, the Packers have a good year. Marty never got a ring, but he didn’t have Aaron Rodgers (rather, he had the likes of Elvis Grbac, Gary Danielson, Rich Gannon, Mike Pagel, Steve DeBerg, Don Strock, and Steve Pelluer … how do you think McCarthy would have fared with those knuckle-draggers?). Let’s just hope that Gutey and the new Coach know that we need to build a Defense. To be fair to Ted, he knew it, and he tried, but he just couldn’t pick ’em worth a shit in the last few years. Three of the 4 Packer Super Bowl Wins came when we had the No. 1 scoring defense (the other year we were 3rd). We have had some of the best QB’s in the history of the NFL, but we have only won it all when we had an exceptional defense. WTF – Coach’s take on football news that’s messed up Escaped Lions Kill 57-Year-Old Interim Coach’s Future “The Packers are devastated by the loss of a coach’s career today,” the organization said in a statement Sunday. GREEN BAY – The prospect of the Packers’ interim head coach getting the position full-time in 2019 was killed by the Detroit Lions after they escaped from a locked space (subservience) on Sunday. Packers Lawyer-in-Chief CEO and purveyor of “Murphy’s Law” (the overarching certainty that any aspect of football operations Mark Murphy can control will go wrong) announced that the interim coach’s chance to become the regular head coach was killed during a routine division game in Lambeau Field about 2:30 p.m. ET. The victim was identified by the Brown County Sheriff’s Office as Joseph A. Philbin, 57, a native of Springfield, Massachusetts and a recent two-time Offensive Coordinator for the Green Bay Packers. In a prepared statement, Murphy’s press assistant Connie Lingus told reporters “Although the team was led by professionals against a battered foe who was falling apart toward the end of the season and had only won once in Green Bay over the past couple of decades, the otherwise routine dismantling of Detroit went inexplicably awry when the Lions somehow left their locked space and entered the space where football players were in, and quickly killed the future of Coach Philbin.” The NFL said it is investigating how the Lions managed to escape their ineptitude, and that they will be returned to inferiority by Thanksgiving of 2019. The NFL would not comment on the fate of the Packers, citing deference to Murphy and his bid to overtake Roger Goodell as League Commissioner. Demovsky: Aaron Rodgers Should Return To His Prime BRISTOL, CT – Since the Packers quarterback signed an NFL-highest $134 million salary prior to the start of the 2018 season, including $100 million of that guaranteed, Packers expert reporter Rob Demovsky is openly starting to question if Aaron Rodgers should swallow his pride and return to the prime of his career. Said Demovsky, “If A-Rod doesn’t want to end up sulking on the sidelines and possibly even be relegated to a backup role, why not go back to leading the league in passer rating? He certainly didn’t help much toward getting the Packers into the playoffs with his play this year, so I think he should at least be open to carving out a role for himself as a player you can build an NFL champion around.” The statistics support Demovsky's assertion: When looking at the current roster of the Packers, it’s hard to see how Rodgers can get Green Bay back into the post season unless he returns to his heyday as an MVP candidate. Demovsky added, “Who knows why Aaron decided to leave such a cushy setup, but I’m sure Packers fans would want to see him back at his pinnacle. The guy was hitting any open receiver he wanted – sometimes ‘throwing them open’ and he had the respect of all his coaches, peers, and even me. I hate to see him tarnish his legacy when he could have played his entire career as Aaron Rodgers from 2011.” The Bears Still Suck – Coach has proof Bears Fan Claims It's Been “A Great Year To Masturbate In The Basement” WINNETKA, IL – Noting a feeling of euphoria when the Bears march a competitive football team out onto the field, and the resulting amorous feeling he gets while watching them play, local fan Chet Yubecha said Sunday after the Vikings game that it’s been a banner year for banging one out in his mom’s basement. “Anyone can download porn, but it’s not every year you can see the Bears win almost every week. I don't know for sure, but I bet I coulda filled a 2-liter bottle this year.” The setup in the Yubecha basement is impressive. You’ll find a mini-fridge tucked behind the bar, filled with Pepsi and Dr. Pepper. Each light switch on the wall has a dimmer, and there’s also a remote control unit for them. The guest bathroom has a USB charger and a small laptop stand next to the toilet. There’s a 55” HD flat screen TV in front of the sectional couch for watching every Bears game, and on non-game days (or when the Bears lose), Chet can rely on his Blu-ray, DVD, and VHS hook-ups. “I never know when the feeling is gonna hit me, but when it does I want to put myself in a position to take advantage of it” said Yubecha. At press time, the optimistic Bears fan was stocking up on tissues and Aloe Vera in case of a deep playoff run. Trubisky: “I Can Be Just As Big Of A Disappointment As Jay Cutler” CHICAGO – Presumably unprepared for the media attention that a playoff spot brings, a bewildered Mitchell Trubisky revealed with wide-eyed honesty to reporters on Monday that he hopes to carry on the Bears tradition of collapsing in January when the opportunity presents itself. “It’s been a while since Jay’s [Cutler] been here, and even longer since the Bears have made the playoffs, but I’m sure I can throw just as many picks as he did and maybe even fake an injury or two to pout on the sidelines as the Eagles’ defense shuts us down offensively and confuses Chase Daniel to no end.” The second-year QB even went on to take the unprecedented step of predicting the score of the Bears’ loss, 17-2. When reached for comment, a smug Jay Cutler suggested “Mitch Turdburgler will never be as good as me, and with that defense he’s got…any below-average quarterback could have gone undefeated considering the easy schedule the Bears had this year.” Trubisky could not be reached for a response, but did reply in a subsequent phone interview: “Really, Jay mentioned me? That’s really neato!” Udder Stuff – Commentary from the Badger Underground Miami Hurry-Canes Fall Down, Can’t Get up Cognitive decline, excessive aging, loss of muscle mass and atrophy conspired against the 'Canes in a 35-3 shitstomping at the hands of the Badgers. This was a 15th ranked Miami defense that could not stop the same one-dimensional Badgers offense that was easily snuffed out by BYU, Northwestern, Michigan, Penn State and Minnesota. Same plays—Taylor right, Taylor left, Taylor up the middle, single-digit receptions to receivers unable to get more than two feet of separation. Miami’s turnover chain defense simply could not stop Wisconsin’s run. The Badgers’ defense seemingly doubled their season’s interception total against two of the worst quarterbacks faced during the Alvarez era. Other highlights included an occasional wrinkle in Paul Chryst’s otherwise predictable play-calling, including tight end screens not seen since the days of Owen Daniels, a bootleg touchdown run by Coan, and several snot-bubbling blocks by Alec Ingold. In the days that followed Pinstripe Bowl beatdown, Miami head coach Mark Richt retired, defensive coordinator Manny Diaz de-committed from his Temple Owls head coaching gig and was elevated to Hurry-Canes head coach. During Diaz’s introductory press conference held Friday at Del Boca Vista, it was announced that the entire offensive coaching staff and Strength & Conditioning staff were fired. Elevated to offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and strength coach, respectively, were Morty Seinfeld, Frank Costanza and Izzy Mandlebaum. In a day of rare, un-scouted Paul Chryst play calls, including running for a touchdown rather than taking a knee in the game’s final seconds, the all too familiar canned postgame commentary containing buzzwords “opportunity,” “appreciation” and “competing” was ditched in favor of a profanity-laced tirade that began with “turnover chain my ass.” The spittle-accentuated venomous words that followed are not fit for print. As ESPN reporters ran for cover and the network cut away to Notre Dame season highlights, a swarm of security staff quickly descended upon Chryst and escorted him from the field. We’re Gonna Kick Your @$$ – Predictions for the upcoming game OK, enough about the 2018 Packers, on to the Playoffs! You may not have gathered this from above, but Coach firmly believes that scoring more points than the other team is good…and it wins playoff games, too! Coach doesn’t have the “full data base” developed still, but looking back at 2010 (Packer SB year) and then ’15, ’16 & ’17; it’s a pretty clear trend that the better team usually wins. The chart below uses the Regular Season Point differential as a predictor of who will win any given playoff game. Over the four years studied, 77% of the playoff games are won by the team with the better regular season point differential. This starts with about 70% of the Wild Card games and improves to 88% of the Conf Championships. Obviously, this makes sense, as typically the best team has the best point differential, ***completely independent of who is the home or away team*** in the playoffs. Let’s use this knowledge to look at this year’s playoffs. This weekend the Bears and Seahawks look like locks to move on in the NFC. But, of course, Coach reminds you that, above all, the Bears still suck and they will lose to the Eagles in the Wildcard round … this assertion allows for the traditional approximate “77%” accuracy of the model in the playoffs (1 of 4 favorites will lose), assuming the model favorites win out in the AFC... On the AFC side the Point Differentials are much closer, so much more of a toss-up. The Texans and Ravens have better defenses on paper and are playing at home, but the Colts look like the hottest team going into the playoffs this year. Like I said, a toss-up. Since I already blew my 77% wad on the Bears loss, let’s assume the Colts and Ravens follow the model. In the divisional round… AFC: Patriots, Chiefs & Ravens top the charts. The Chiefs should be one of the two winners, and the other Div Round game will be in New England, so pencil in the Patriots to participate in another AFC Championship. They have not fared so well on the road in the playoffs, though, so KC should playing for the Lombardi Trophy this year (unless Andy Reid can’t get out of his own way). NFC: Saints & Rams have the largest differentials. The Rams do not have a great defense, so they could also fall to a Nick Foles-led upstart 6th-seed Eagles team in an unfilled stadium in south-central Los Angeles , but either way the numbers predict the Saints will win the NFC Championship at home. This is a completely believable scenario if you’ve watched meaningful games in the Superdome this year. Oh, and another ~77% accuracy prediction for the model in the Divisional Round. To Recap: NFC Championship: Eagles @ Saints AFC Championship: Pats @ Chiefs Super Bowl: Saints vs. Chiefs Super Bowl Winner: Saints And very importantly … the model will have predicted 82% of the game winners (9 of 11 correctly predicted)! And if it’s wrong? Well, too bad, you can work overtime to replenish the kid’s college fund (and you won’t remember these predictions by next week, let alone when Coach publishes The Show!!! again for the draft). JB – Packers you forgot about, but stories you’ll remember about them A coupletree weeks ago we had a contest for best cameo appearance in a movie, and Coach received some questions about one of the entries featuring a relatively obscure former Packers player named Brett Lorenzo Favre (pronounced “Fah-vruh”) who was in the movie entitled “There’s Something About Mary” … it turns out many folks saw the movie, but didn’t know that the “ex-boyfriend” of Cameron Diaz’s character “Mary” was a former NFL player who was on the Packers roster as a quarterback at the time the movie was released. The most attentive of football fans might recognize Favre as an NFL quarterback, but more likely as a journeyman with the Falcons, Jets, or Vikings. In reality, though, the first choice for Cameron Diaz's football-playing ex-boyfriend in There's Something About Mary was Drew Bledsoe, not Brett Favre. The Farrelly Brothers, who are big Patriots fans and produced the movie, wanted Bledsoe, then with the Patriots, as the top choice for the end-of-movie cameo in the 1998 hit. "Our first choice was Drew Bledsoe. He was the stud at the time for the Patriots … but he had just gotten into a little…" Bobby Farrelly started to say, and then "They had the mosh incident," Peter Farrelly interjected. "He was a single guy, went out with his pals, they went to a club, he dove into a mosh pit and someone kind of tweaked their neck, nothing serious, but it was in the news. So he called us up and said 'I can’t come do your movie in Miami because if they find out I did a movie after that they’re going to run me out of town.'" "Then we went to Steve Young. And Steve Young called one day and said 'That’s the funniest script I’ve ever read. But I cannot do it, because if I do it, it’s R-rated, and I know all the Mormon kids will be sneaking in and I wouldn’t feel good about that,'" the brothers recalled. "Stand up guy … then we went to Favre. When Brett was coming, we got phone calls from his manager and said 'don’t hit him up for autographs.' So we told the whole crew….” "It’s one of my great regrets in life that I didn’t take that part," Bledsoe said. "I know the movie would’ve had a successful run had I been in it. Had I taken that part instead of Brett, we’re talking Academy Awards and all those things." Favre commented "Well first of all it was a long time ago, so my memory recall is not very good. I just remember it being a lot of fun. It was something very different from what I'd been used to. If I ever felt like a rookie, this was the time. The guys were patient, very nice, enjoyed the crew. My wife and I went down, went out to dinner with the whole crew. It was just a lot of fun, very different from what I'd been used to.
"I was honored to be a part of it. It was funny." But Favre wasn't aware he was the third choice. "No," said a smiling Favre. "If I'd known that I would have never done it." So there you have it. A former Packers player named Brett Favre was in a movie that you probably saw. Related, he also texted a selfie of his dick to this lady...
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Author"Coach" is the insightful collective brain and funny bone of a few legendary Packer fans who provide everything you need to know (and what Packers beat writers often plagiarize) about the Green & Gold, plus a weekly guest appearance by The Badger Underground. Archives
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