Yep, that’s 3 in a row! Welcome back to The Coach Clarahanson Show !!! In Coach’s Humble Opinion: Packers should only hire head coaches with surnames starting in “L”… I choose truth over facts. The science deniers will argue this point, but the numbers don’t lie. If the Packers want to win consistently; say, at least two-thirds of the time – then they should only hire head coaches with a last name that begins with the letter “L.” The letter “L” starting a head coach's surname is more important than previous head coaching experience, or what “tree” a coach comes from. Look, poor coaches are just as smart as white coaches. Everyone knows that. It’s not that they don’t want help, they just don’t know what to do. Play the radio, make sure the television, excuse me, make sure you have the record player on at night, the phone. We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men and women go -- you know … you know the thing. C’mon, man! These are things that unite a team to win. Lambeau, Lombardi, LaFleur, all won at least 2 of every 3 games they coached. If you follow the science, the only conclusion you can draw is that Packers head coaches should have a surname beginning with the letter “L” or, as a 2nd option, have the first name “Mike” (but winning percentage will then be somewhat compromised … as low as 59% - see the chart below). Still skeptical? Then how do you explain this… SEC West Division bottom dweller Mississippi State just upset the reigning National Champion and 6th ranked LSU Tigers 44-34 in Baton Rouge. “Who is the MSU Bulldogs’ new head coach this year, making his debut in the SEC?” you ask… Why it is none other than Mike Leach (gasp!). That could be the most formidable name in football, according to science. Related, and just as scientific, the world is projected to end in less than 12 years unless you stop using fossil fuels and eating meat, and unless you give lots of money and credence to causes that claim climate change is an existential threat; therefore, Matt LaFleur looks to be our last head coach anyways (if we’re lucky), so I guess all of this becomes a moot point in the end. …at least, in my humble opinion. Create A Seam Here – X’s & O’s about the game or a scheme Another weird week of COVID-NFL Football and the El Paso kid shows up wearing, what? A Packers sombrero and his sports sun goggles, perfectly polarized to blunt the blinding rays of the Superdome Sun (or maybe blunt the red eyes from a blunt)? Throwing caution to the wind, the Saints opened the stadium up to fans and other infected New Orleanians and 750 people showed up. Ah, who cares we’re 3-0! What did Coach tell youse last week, eh? Last week Coach said: Go mortgage the house and put it all on the Pack to not only cover the spread, but to win convincingly. Packers 38 Saints 31 And what happened? I hope you did bet the house like Coach tole yooce. We won and covered! Packers 37 Saints 31 Ok, aside from the fact that Coach is the inaugural member of the Nostradamus Club, the Packers played to form.
….and, pretty good Special Teams! Special Teams have been an Achilles Heel for the Packers for a long time, arguably back to the 1996 Super Bowl Team (the 2010 Team had “good” but not “great” ST). There are many elements to ST, let’s just skim the main parts:
The good folks at Football Outsiders (FO) have a very detailed methodology for evaluating ST. In the event that you are a nerd and have several days to waste looking at websites, Coach invites you to take a deep dive into their work (Click On Link). If you don’t care and just want to know the answer, then read on! Through the first three weeks of the 2020 Season, FO has the Packers ranked at No. 7 overall, up from No. 12 last week. Let’s break this down into two elements to keep it simple: Scoring-Points & Kicking/Punting-Coverage-&-Returns Scoring Points on ST In no surprise to any of you actually watching the games, we are ranked No. 1, first, numero uno in Field Goals and Extra Points. Mason Crosby and his snap-team have been “money”. Yes, it’s his leg, but Hunter Bradley snapping and JK Scott holding are critical as well. Kicking/Punting Coverage & Returns Football Outsiders (FO) has us ranked in the middle-of-the-pack at No. 18 in this category. This is “OK”, but not as good as we need to be. To determine the ranking, FO calculates the “Hidden Points” from the change in field position due to the kicking and returns. In plain English, the better you punt-and-cover, the better you kick-and-cover and the better you return kicks, the better net field position you will have, relative to the other guy. And, better field position leads to a higher probability of scoring points or not giving up points. But there are definitely bright spots on ST!! One of Coach’s favorite plays of the game was the Saints first punt. They went 3-&-Out on the first series and set up for a “routine” punt. This is a classic time for a fake punt, because nobody expects one! Remember the 2009 Super Bowl? Saints Coach Sean Payton opened the 2nd half with an onside kick and stole a possession. Will the Packers fall for it? As you can see in the shot above, the Packers only rushed 3, had Z’Darious Smith “spying” on Taysom Hill and 4 guys back in fake punt coverage. We were definitely ready for the fake (and probably prevented them from running a fake). The other huge ST play was with 0:32 left in the game; we correctly played the short Onside Kick to finally seal the deal. Special Teams don’t get mentioned very often, but they are critical to winning. You can have a great team, only to have ST lose the game for you. See also: Brandon Bostick. This is the type of game preparation and management that completely eluded Melissa McCarthy all those years he was in Green Bay. Neither of these plays show up in the Box Score, but both were key plays in winning this game. Way to go Coach Meningitis! The game felt a little bit like the previous two, some back and forth and eventually the Packers took control late in the 4th Qtr. Brees’ inability to mask his right cheek mole or throw downfield showed up on Sunday night, but he still had a slightly better Passer Rating than AR (127.8 vs. 124.9). No matter, we won. In his post-game presser Aints Coach Sean Payton gave Rodgers and the Packers Offense a lot of credit without directly criticizing Brees. “We jump offsides and allow him a free play on 3rd down when all week long we talked about discipline and cadence. It’s 3rd, it’s a great opportunity for us to get off the field…” (Referring to the 3rd & 3 at the Saints 15, with 3:49 left in the game and the 30-27 Packers. Rodgers was masterful and he drained 4:36 off the clock and eventually threw a TD to Tonyan to seal the game at 37-27.) And Payton on why the Packers’ bootlegs are so difficult to defend: “That’s a good question … we made ’em look difficult”. With Davante Adams injured on the sideline, Lazard had his best game as a pro --- 6 receptions for 146 and a TD. What is it about Lazard and stumbling downfield? Even Davante Adams got in on the teasing… Overall the stats on the game say it was a very close game. And it was except for the age-old adage in all high-level sports: “the team with the fewest mistakes wins” (see also: Belichick, William). We ran the ball a little bit more than the Saints (26 to 20 attempts) and we had a little bit more TOP (31:40 vs. 28:20). But the biggest advantages we had were Red Zone effectiveness (80% vs. 50%), Penalties (8 vs.2), and turnovers (1-0, the Z’Darious Smith strip-sack-fumble-recovery on Taysom Hill). Flip it around the other way and the Packers even played fairly well on Defense … except for mistakes. [And Coach would be a billionaire, except for his investing mistakes. Somebody, anyone, please tell all your friends to drop Facebook for MySpace!] Most of the game the Saints were bottled up, except for Alvin Kamara. He singlehandedly had 50% of the Saints yards and on only two plays, one run and one pass, he accounted for 25% of the Saints Offense (see mustard colored highlight in Box Score above). The two charts below show Kamara’s runs and pass receptions. The run chart shows that essentially, he had one run, but it was a monster run. Similarly below with the pass receiving chart. Kamara had more success as a receiver, but obviously had one killer pass reception (or said another way, on one play the Packers defense had 6 missed tackles and looked like a bunch of pussies). The Kamara catch and run was just sickening. It was a simple check down pass by Brees on 3rd and 5. The carnage started with Will Redmond missing a tackle-for-loss and ended with 6 points, five missed tackles later. Is there is hope on Defense Coach? Yes Billy, there is hope. Option A: Fix the D with the guys we have! Kingsley Keke had two sacks, a tipped pass and a strip sack. Way to go Kinsley! With the score 30-27 and 8:47 left in the game the Saints got ball on their own 25. Classic time for a Brees comeback TD. But we stopped them for a 3 & out at a critical juncture in the game. 1st Down 2nd Down 3rd Down Halleluiah, on the last play the whole D showed up for some gang tackling! To summarize, some of the best Defensive plays of the game were made by: Kinsley Keke 5th Rnd Draft - 2019 Krys Barns UDFA - 2020 Ty Summers 7th Rnd Draft - 2019 Chandon Sullivan UDFA - 2018 No. 58 can take his hurt shoulder and watch Ty Summers work for a few weeks. Well done by Gooty for working on the Depth. It’s a little early to declare that Gooty has stocked the cupboard like we had in 2010, but the depth looks good. Let’s hope that D Coordinator Poutine can fix things, but if not there’s always … Plan B on Defense: The son of Bum Phillips is available as D-Coordinator! WTF – Coach’s take on football news that’s messed up Local Dad Continues to Pine for 1st Round WR Kaukauna, WI—Waxing philosophic about opportunity lost as a result taking a backup quarterback in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft, paper mill consultant Bob VandenBoomer informed his high school-aged son at the breakfast table Monday morning that “I still think the Packers should have taken a Wide Receiver in the first round,” despite Green Bay’s offense putting up an eye-popping, league-leading average of over 37-points per game, even without the services of their star wide receiver Davante Adams for 2 of their 3 games. “Sure, I’m not a professional scout, but I’ve heard enough football commentators on TV and the radio to know who Gooty SHOULD have drafted in the first round, and that was a wide receiver, or at least a middle linebacker, or maybe a D lineman, or a right tackle!” In response to the puzzled look on his son’s face, VandenBoomer drew a parallel comparing his disappointment in the 2020 Packers draft class to that of his son’s poor score on the ACT college entrance exam last spring. “Just because you make the playoffs – or get good grades – every year doesn’t lead to a championship, or entrance to a top flight university, like your brother.” At press time, VandenBoomer was doing damage control by comparing the speed at which his son cleared the table to Desmond Howard’s Super Bowl XXXI MVP performance returning kick-offs and punts. The Bears Still Suck – Coach has proof Rioters Decline to Sign Mitch Trubisky CHICAGO—Mitch Trubisky appeared at the Chicago riots last week, saying he was excited to be a part of the looting and violence. Trubisky tried out for the riots by throwing bricks into windows but missed every time. He was able to rush a Molotov cocktail into a Jewel Grocery Store window and then spike it on the ground, but then he caught fire. Finally, in a last-ditch effort to get selected for one of the riot squads, he filmed a workout video and sent it to various protester organizations but hadn't heard back as of publishing time. "While we appreciate Mitch's enthusiasm, we need someone who can lob a Molotov cocktail accurately," said a representative for the rioters. "We wish him the best of luck in his future rioting career. We believe Mitch will land on his feet with another rioting organization. Maybe New York or Portland will want him." Udder Stuff – Commentary from the Badger Underground As the Pandemic goes on, the Badgers get testy... Frankly, we are just cringing at the fact that this weekend was supposed to be the Bucky vs Notre Dame game in Lambeau. We had been looking forward to that shit-stomping Bucky victory since about 1981. Maybe the football gods settle the books, make things right and we get the bloody Catholics in a bowl game. Luckily, we have the Packers to watch and have only a coupla weeks before the Badger opener against the FIB’s. OK, here is a little analysis of the Bucky D for you … it is expected to be a strength, despite losing Jonathan Orr and Zach Baun. As you might be aware, Paul Chryst has been scoring some big recruiting wins. Madison’s reputation as a top-tier party campus, recently relaxed academic standards for athletes, nationwide Covid disruptions and a demonstrated culture of social un-distancing have made UW a destination campus for disgruntled transfers from other programs. Here is our analysis by position as promised last week: Defensive End: The 3-man line is expected to be a strong point this year with redshirt seniors Issaiah Loudermilk and Garrett Rand on the ends and a soph-o-more from Janesville Craig, Keeanu Benton, at nose tackle. ILB: Chris Orr will be missed as he was in the second half of the B1G Championship when Fields ran wild, but look for Chenal and Sanborn to step up. There are a coupla tree-star recruits out there as well to keep an eye on. They are some BMF’s who show plenty of promise. OLB: Backfilling for Zach Baun will be tough, but check out the wingspan on 6’6” expected starter Green-May. Burk is back and providing much-needed instant pass rush, a good locker room guy with an attitude. The OLB recruits are spectacular at this position with two 4-stars and a 3-star! CB’s: ALL CB’s are back this year and expect them to build on their experience last year. Williams, Wildgoose, and Hicks are expected starters with plenty of experienced back-up. Three-star recruit Max Lofy wins the Badger Underground cool name award this week. Safeties: Scott Nelson is back after losing the whole 2019 season to injury. Let’s hope he stays healthy. Like the CB’s, there were no significant departures. This D on paper should rock! Jimmy Leonard will coach ‘em up. We cannot wait. Support Staff: The newly-formed pre/post-game off-the-field cheer team is no longer accepting applicants, having also landed top-tier transfers… We’re Gonna Kick Your @$$ – predictions for the upcoming game It turns out the Falcons are one of the worst franchises in NFL history when it comes to blown leads. The Falcons blew a 20-point lead against the Cowboys in Week 2 and blew a 16-point lead against the Bears last week. Epic collapses in both games. Needless to say, the Falcon’s fans and media have been merciless… But Coach, don’t they still have Matty Ice and Julio Jones? Yes Billy, they do, but so what? Matty Ice has no answers for why they are blowing games (see also Super Bowl LI). The Packers have been 4-3 against the Dirty Birds since killing them 48-21 in Atlanta during the 2010 Playoffs (Coach was there, of course). A consistent theme them in those 7 games is that we play well on Offense (avg 28 ppg) but play weakly on Defense. (Where have I heard that before?) The last time we played the Falcons was December 9th, 2018 at Lambeau. You may remember that game as a nice win. Coach remembers that game as the debut of Interim-Head-Coach-Joe-Philbin (sung to the tune of “Ding Dong the Witch is Dead”). For the 2020 Season, the Pack looks much stronger than the Falcons. On Offense we’re averaging 10 more points/gm (40 vs. 30) and on D we’re allowing 8 fewer points (28 vs. 36). Both Offenses are good, both Defenses are bad, sort of like last week, but the Falcons are way shittier than the Saints. Granted, three-games-in is not a big data set, but if you throw in 2 points for Home-Field-Advantage, we have a 20-point margin! Currently the betting line favors the Pack by 2 ½ points which will likely grow during the week (and the O/U was only 43, go figure that one). Ok, we’re hot, they’re not. We’re coming off a big win, they’re coming off of two terrible and embarrassing losses. Isn’t that the formula for the classic NFL upset (in the “they get paid, too” category)? No. We will not have a letdown, why? The Offense will continue at record pace! (Despite Lazard’s torn tummy.) Special Teams will continue to improve! (Seems like a safe bet.) The Defense will finally play a complete game! (OK, well maybe that’s a stretch.) The Smith Bros. have had enough criticism and they will play disciplined and in control. We also now have Ty Summers in the middle. The greatest ability is availability. So, while Christian Kirksey might have been an upgrade over Blake Martinez at inside linebacker for the Green Bay Packers, he missed the final two-and-a-half quarters of Sunday night’s win at New Orleans with a shoulder injury. After missing 23 games the past two seasons due to injuries, Kirksey is expected to miss at least Monday night’s game against the Atlanta Falcons. Without Kirksey, Ty Summers was thrust into action and played 44 snaps at linebacker and led the team in tackles against the Saints. Definitely an upgrade! Rodgers will stay focused and want to notch another win before the bye week! Packers 44 Dirty Birds 28 Chevon McNuggets - G.O.A.T. facts to chew on JB – Packers you forgot about, but stories you’ll remember about them So you’re probably wondering, “Who was the heaviest Packer to play on one of Brett Favre’s teams?” And then you’re probably answering yourself, “It’s gotta be Gilbert Brown, right? It’s gotta be.” Well, it’s not. It was actually Southern Belle, Grady Jackson! That’s right, Gilbert came in at a svelte 340-lbs (or, as Mike Holgren used to say, “a-player-and-half wide”), whereas big Grady topped the scales at 345-lbs (both men being an even 6’-2” tall). What’s even more scary is that both of these guys played with each other! (…the game of football, I mean, of course) That’s right, if you were playing Center for the Chicago Bears in 2003, your coach would be Dick Jauron, you’d be snapping the ball to Kordell Stewart, your team would be very shitty, AND you’d be lining up against almost 700-lbs of gap-filling belly fat when you played the Packers. Daunting. So what happened to Grady? Well, he was what you’d call a journeyman defensive player... Originally drafted by the Raiders in the 6th Round of the 1997 draft, Grady then moved on to New Orleans before coming to Green Bay. After he was released in 2005 by the Packers following multiple arrests for possessing amounts of marijuana in the truck of his car sufficient to be considered “for distribution” under Florida law, he found himself some playing time in none other than Atlanta, GA. From there Jackson bounced around to play for Jacksonville (ha ha), then again in Atlanta (2008), before finally going to the place where all football player’s and coach’s careers die, Detroit (see also, Dick Jauron). So, Grady Jackson, you’ll never be of great Gilbert fame in Green Bay, but you were a bigger man than he (literally, not figuratively), and for that we salute you!
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Author"Coach" is the insightful collective brain and funny bone of a few legendary Packer fans who provide everything you need to know (and what Packers beat writers often plagiarize) about the Green & Gold, plus a weekly guest appearance by The Badger Underground. Archives
November 2022
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